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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."