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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.